How to sure-win in a casino: be already rich when you first set foot inside.
Did you know that if you double your bet every time you lose, you will eventually win?
And I mean net-net win.
Because when that win eventually comes, it doesn’t just cover your latest bet. It pays back every loss that came before it, with a profit left over.
The maths checks out.
Read on as B explains.
What is Martingale?
In a hypothetical situation, B has opened a casino.
There is only 1 game here: the humble coin flip — heads or tails.
Bet $1 and win? You walk away with $2 — your original $1, plus $1 in winnings.
Bet $1 and lose? You walk away with $0.
The odds are simple: 50% chance of winning, 50% chance of losing.
Except that B, the casino owner, tells you outright that in order to win here, you need to keep doubling your bet every time you lose.
|
Bet Number
The nth bet
|
Bet Size
Double the size of the previous bet
until you eventually win |
Losses To Date
Sum of everything you have lost
before this bet |
Payout If Bet Is Won
Total returned if you win:
twice your bet size in this game |
Net Profit
Payout minus current bet minus
sum of all previous losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | $1 | $0 | $2 |
$2 − $1 − $0
= $1
|
| #2 | $2 | $1 | $4 |
$4 − $2 − $1
= $1
|
| #3 | $4 | $3 | $8 |
$8 − $4 − $3
= $1
|
| #4 | $8 | $7 | $16 |
$16 − $8 − $7
= $1
|
| #5 | $16 | $15 | $32 |
$32 − $16 − $15
= $1
|
| #6 | $32 | $31 | $64 |
$64 − $32 − $31
= $1
|
| #7 | $64 | $63 | $128 |
$128 − $64 − $63
= $1
|
| #8 | $128 | $127 | $256 |
$256 − $128 − $127
= $1
|
| #9 | $256 | $255 | $512 |
$512 − $256 − $255
= $1
|
| #10 | $512 | $511 | $1,024 |
$1,024 − $512 − $511
= $1
|
If still haven’t yet won by Bet Number #10?
Just keep going.
Eventually, you will win.
Remember: if you stop now, you’d have lost $1,023 by Bet #10, $2,047 by Bet #11, $4,095 by Bet #12…
There is also a 99.9% chance that you would have won by Bet #10 cos…
P(win by Bet n) = 1 − (0.5)n
Therefore,
|
Win By Bet
The bet by which you have won at least once
|
Total Capital Needed
Enough money to place every bet up to this point
|
Probability Of Having Won By Then
Chance of having won at least once
|
|---|---|---|
| #1 | $1 | 50% |
| #2 | $3 | 75% |
| #3 | $7 | 87.5% |
| #4 | $15 | 93.75% |
| #5 | $31 | 96.875% |
| #6 | $63 | 98.4375% |
| #7 | $127 | 99.2188% |
| #8 | $255 | 99.6094% |
| #9 | $511 | 99.8047% |
| #10 | $1,023 | 99.9023% |
| #11 | $2,047 | 99.9512% |
| #12 | $4,095 | 99.9756% |
So technically, if you have some say $4,095 to spare, that minimum gain of $1 is yours to keep. Unless you are very, very, very unlucky of course.
(But even then, you’ll be fine as long as you have more money to double your bet)
A $1 return on $1,023 (10 bets to win, 0.098% return), $255 (8 bets to win, 0.392% return) or even $31 (5 bets to win, 3.23% return) isn’t exactly fantastic but…
Assuming that this game will always be available to play at Casino B… then technically, the effective rate of return is dependent on how fast one can play the game — i.e. how many bets one can place, win, reset, and repeat within a given period of time.
And remember, this is a zero-risk, sure-win strategy. Provided you have sufficient capital to lose.
And what does B, the casino owner, gain here you may ask?
B profits from the people who leave the casino early — those who stop after a few losses, or simply can’t afford to double their bets anymore.
Every unfinished sequence leaves money on the table for B.
The punter needs enough capital to keep playing until that eventual win.
B only needs the punter to run out of money first.
This is the Martingale Strategy — a centuries-old betting system where those who run out of money first lose it all, while those with enough capital to keep playing are increasingly likely to walk away winners.
Simulation
Still unconvinced? Or think this only works for a 50:50 game with a 1:1 payout?
Here’s a simulation to prove otherwise.
Streamlit: https://awhitepen-martingale.streamlit.app
GitHub: https://github.com/a-white-pen/martingale
Of course, at the end of the day, ‘winning’ means nothing unless one beats inflation.
Rule #1 on money:
“If inflation is at 20%, and you make 15% gains on your investment, you’re effectively losing money.”
If I can buy 5 eggs with 100% of my money today, I need to be able to buy more than 5 eggs with 100% of my money tomorrow to have actually made a profit.
That is assuming that eggs continue to hold the same value to both me and willing egg buyers today and tomorrow. Which means that we don’t have idk… a fake egg or eggs are bad for health scandal or something. Or a sudden surge in interest and demand for eggs. Lol.
For the everyday NRY human…
Now, to all you Polymarket and prediction-market bosses out there… do you have enough capital to even warrant stepping into the casino?
Even with even odds set at a 50% chance of winning, a 1:1 payout, and starting bet of just $1, lose 26 times in a row and you would need $134 million in capital to survive that streak and actually profit.
And even then, your ability to eventually win depends on the game still being there when you are in the middle of a losing streak — the casino not imposing a betting limit, changing the payout, shutting the market, or simply calling it a day.
Counterintuitive to popular belief – luck matters less when you’re already rich.
Hard work also matters less.
Because if you’re lucky enough to be born rich(-er, because all things in life are relative), you’d have won already anyway.
The rich don’t win because the coin likes them. They win because they can afford to keep flipping it.
Moral of the Story: Do not even set foot into the casino unless you have the capital to tank through the loses. And only set foot into a ‘reliable’ casino that wouldn’t shut down halfway during your losing streak.
For now, B shall sit out of such monetary games of randomness, regardless of the odds and payouts…
… unless I have the backing of a boss with like unlimited capital and a solid risk management team.
Till then, B shall focus on actually creating value for fellow humankind in return for um… eggs and protein. Lol.
Although B can probably mathematically argue that in this volatile economic environment.. one might actually be better off day trading than value investing but… story for another day.
In love and in cash… The Winner Takes It All.
Ciao.